Maintain Investment in Downturn

Maintaining or increasing marketing investment during an economic downturn is a calculated play for market share, not an act of bravado. When competitors reduce their spending, the total category 'noise' drops, which significantly lowers the cost of achieving Excess Share of Voice (ESOV). ESOV—defined as a Share of Voice that exceeds your current Share of Market—is the primary driver of brand growth. Brands that maintain presence build stronger mental availability during periods of consumer price sensitivity, positioning themselves as stable and reliable. Data from the IPA shows that brands maintaining investment grow up to five times faster during the recovery phase than those that go dark. Cutting spend leads to a decay in memory structures that costs significantly more to rebuild later.

The empirical foundation for maintaining investment during downturns was primarily codified by Peter Field and Les Binet through their extensive analysis of the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA) Databank. While the concept of 'advertising through a recession' has been discussed since the 1920s (notably by Roland S. Vaile), it was Field's 2008 report, 'Advertising in a Downturn,' and subsequent updates following the 2020 pandemic, that provided the statistical rigor required to move the concept from 'marketing folklore' to a proven law of Marketing Science. Their work analyzed over 800 case studies across multiple decades of economic cycles.

The fundamental mechanism driving this law is the relationship between Share of Voice (SOV) and Share of Market (SOM), specifically the concept of Excess Share of Voice (ESOV). In any stable market, a brand's SOM tends to follow its SOV. If SOV > SOM, the brand typically grows (positive ESOV). If SOV < SOM, the brand typically shrinks (negative ESOV).

During a downturn, most brands instinctively cut their marketing budgets. This causes the total 'noise' or aggregate advertising spend in the category to plummet. If Brand A maintains its absolute budget while its competitors cut theirs by 50%, Brand A’s relative Share of Voice increases dramatically without spending an extra cent. This 'accidental' ESOV is the cheapest market share a brand will ever buy.

Psychologically, this works through the maintenance of Mental Availability. Consumers do not stop thinking during a recession; they become more risk-averse. Brands that remain visible signal stability and 'fitness.' When the recovery begins, these brands occupy the primary 'repertoire' positions in the consumer's mind. Conversely, brands that go dark suffer from 'decay of memory structures.' Rebuilding these neural pathways after a two-year hiatus is exponentially more expensive than the cost of maintaining them during the slump.

Furthermore, media costs (CPM/CPC) often decrease during a recession due to lower demand. This creates a 'double-whammy' effect: your dollars go further, and they face less competition, resulting in a massively inflated ESOV for the same capital outlay. The law of 'equilibrium' suggests that if you don't defend your mental territory, someone else will occupy it, and the cost of eviction is always higher than the cost of defense.