ESOV Multiplier in Recession

The ESOV (Extra Share of Voice) Multiplier in a recession describes the phenomenon where the effectiveness of marketing spend increases significantly during economic downturns. Because competitors typically slash their advertising budgets, the total 'noise' in the market decreases. A brand that maintains or increases its budget achieves a much higher Share of Voice (SOV) for every dollar spent. This creates a larger gap between SOV and Share of Market (SOM), known as ESOV. Research by Peter Field and the IPA demonstrates that this 'Extra' share is more potent during a recession, leading to faster market share gains at a lower cost per point of growth compared to stable economic periods. Essentially, the 'cost of growth' drops when everyone else stops trying.

The concept of the ESOV Multiplier in a recession was primarily codified and popularized by Peter Field and Les Binet, drawing on decades of data from the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA) Databank. While the relationship between SOV and SOM was established earlier (notably by the PIMS project and John Philip Jones), Field’s specific focus on the 'recession multiplier' emerged prominently in the wake of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. His landmark study, 'Advertising in a Downturn' (2008), published by the IPA, analyzed how brands that maintained investment outperformed those that cut. This work was further refined in 'The Long and the Short of It' (2013), where Binet and Field quantified the 'Extra' Share of Voice (ESOV) as the primary driver of long-term market share growth, noting its heightened efficiency during contractionary cycles.

The mechanism of the ESOV Multiplier is rooted in the mathematical relationship between a brand's Share of Voice (SOV) and its Share of Market (SOM). Under normal economic conditions, the 'equilibrium' rule suggests that a brand with an SOV equal to its SOM will maintain its market position. To grow, a brand must achieve ESOV (SOV > SOM). Typically, a 10-point gap of ESOV leads to roughly 0.5% of market share growth per year.

However, during a recession, two structural shifts occur. First, the 'Noise Floor' drops. As competitors withdraw or reduce spend, the total category advertising expenditure (the denominator in the SOV calculation) decreases. If a brand keeps its absolute spend constant, its relative SOV increases automatically. Second, media deflation often occurs; as demand for ad space drops, the cost per thousand (CPM) or cost per point (CPP) decreases. This allows the same budget to purchase more impressions, further inflating SOV.

Psychologically, the multiplier works through 'Mental Availability.' When competitors go dark, they stop refreshing the memory structures of their consumers. A brand that continues to advertise faces less interference (the 'clutter' effect), making its messaging more salient. This lack of competition for attention allows the brand to occupy vacant mental real estate. Furthermore, the 'Signaling Theory' suggests that continued advertising during a crisis signals brand strength and stability to consumers, fostering trust when they are most risk-averse. The result is a 'Multiplier Effect' where the efficiency of each percentage point of ESOV is significantly higher—often cited as being 1.6x to 2x more effective—than in a 'hot' economy.